AGP Executive Report

Saudi-Houthi Escalation: Deadly Houthi missile and drone strikes on Riyadh’s airport have killed at least 12 people and disrupted flights. Saudi Arabia is investigating its air-defense failure and vows to respond, while President Donald Trump says he is weighing new US strikes. Philippine Airlines extended Riyadh cancellations through Nov. 29. Iraq’s Security Choices: At the MERI Forum, Iraqi and Kurdish leaders backed shifting from the US-led coalition to bilateral security ties, but called for stronger air defenses and weapons under state control. Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani said the region sealed its Iranian border and would not allow armed groups to attack Iran from its territory. Wider Regional Risks: Reports that Syria is considering sending forces to support Saudi Arabia in Yemen remain unconfirmed. The conflict’s energy shock is spreading globally, with the World Bank in talks with 30 to 40 countries about crisis financing.

Saudi-Houthi Escalation: Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed at least 12 people and wounded more than 300, with further strikes disrupting flights and raising fears of a wider conflict. Saudi Arabia has vowed a response, while Washington is weighing possible action. Iran Diplomacy: Tehran called the latest US proposal to end the war “insufficient,” as Israel prepared a multi-front security meeting on Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Regional Alignments: Pakistan’s defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye faces an early test as Islamabad seeks to support Riyadh without worsening ties with Iran. Separately, reports that Syria is considering military assistance to Saudi Arabia remain unconfirmed by either government. Ukraine Ceasefire: Trump’s surprise claim of a Russia-Ukraine energy truce drew no confirmation from Moscow; Kyiv said Russian strikes hit power plants after the announcement.

Saudi Escalation: A strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed at least 12 people and injured 309; another projectile hit the airport the next day, keeping flights suspended. The Houthis claimed responsibility, while the Saudi-led coalition vowed a decisive response and President Trump said Washington was weighing whether to join Saudi military action. Israel’s Political Reckoning: Former attorney general Avichai Mandelblit testified in Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial, with national elections weeks away. Separately, Shin Bet plans an Islamic studies program to address intelligence failures exposed by the October 7 attack. Iran’s Nuclear Future: Six months into the war, damage to nuclear facilities has not clearly delayed Iran’s ability to produce a weapon, while debate over crossing the threshold has grown more open. Economic Fallout: The World Bank says 30 to 40 countries are discussing crisis aid as energy and fertilizer costs rise amid the regional conflict.

Saudi-Yemen Escalation: A strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed at least 12 and injured 309, Saudi authorities said, suspending flights. A diplomatic source blamed the Houthis; President Trump says he is weighing US strikes. Bab el-Mandeb Front: Yemeni government forces are advancing near the strait, but military sources say the Houthis still hold Perim Island, a key position. Iran’s Military Capacity: Western officials say Iran retains missile and drone production capability despite months of US-Israeli strikes, challenging claims that its military industry was dismantled. Economic Fallout: The Middle East war and disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will dominate IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, as energy costs and debt strain economies worldwide. Gaza: A year after a US-brokered ceasefire, progress has stalled and Israeli attacks continue, according to recent reports.

Saudi-Yemen Escalation: Houthi attacks on Riyadh airport have heightened fears of a wider war; an earlier strike killed three, while reports of a new attack and injuries on Saturday were not confirmed by Saudi authorities. Yemen’s government is also pushing to retake territory near Bab al-Mandab, as the UN envoy warns the country is back in full-scale conflict. Regional Alliances: Bangladesh says it is positively considering the Makkah Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia, subject to national interests and the potential role of its peacekeepers. Pakistan, meanwhile, says it is working for a negotiated end to the Middle East conflict and opposes its spread. Iran Diplomacy: Vladimir Putin offered to help mediate between Tehran and Washington, while intelligence assessments say Iran retains missile and drone production capacity despite months of strikes. Donald Trump has ruled out new US attacks before November’s midterms, even as the Pentagon weighs further plans. Gaza: A year after a US-brokered ceasefire, progress remains stalled and Israeli strikes continue, leaving hopes of a lasting settlement distant.

Yemen Escalation: Saudi Arabia’s coalition says it destroyed 136 Houthi military targets as fighting widened. Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport killed three people, and the UN envoy warned Yemen had returned to “full-scale war.” US-Iran Standoff: Trump says the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms, even as the Pentagon prepares strike options and more forces head to the region. Tehran says a deal requires sanctions relief and an end to the US oil blockade. Regional Cooperation: The leaders of Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan agreed to establish a commission on the Caspian Sea’s falling water levels, with its first meeting planned for 2027. Gaza Ceasefire: A year after the truce began, aid and reconstruction remain stalled, while 1.9 million Palestinians are still displaced and Israeli forces have occupied more territory.

Saudi-Yemen Escalation: Houthi-claimed strikes on Riyadh’s airport killed three Saudi nationals and wounded dozens, disrupting flights and prompting fresh Saudi attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen. The assault marks a sharp widening of the conflict as Saudi-backed forces battle the Houthis. US-Iran Standoff: Donald Trump says Washington will not strike Iran before the November 3 midterms, citing “productive” discussions, even as Iran claims control of the Strait of Hormuz and says it struck a tanker. The Pentagon is reportedly preparing strike options, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says talks cannot succeed under threats. Regional Security: Pakistan says it is working with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye to implement the Makkah defence pact, as Houthi attacks raise pressure for closer coordination. Palestinian Politics: The Palestinian Authority has postponed its first parliamentary elections in 20 years, delaying a long-awaited vote amid deep political divisions.

Iran Diplomacy: Vladimir Putin told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Russia would do “everything” it can to help end the war. President Trump says the US will not strike Iran before the November 3 midterms, though reports say the Pentagon is preparing options and Israel is weighing the risk of renewed attacks. Yemen and Saudi Arabia: Houthi missile attacks disrupted Riyadh airport and killed three people in recent strikes, according to Saudi authorities. Yemen’s government says its forces have killed 1,860 Houthi fighters in a counteroffensive and warns of further escalation. Gaza’s Unresolved Future: Three years after the October 7 attacks, a ceasefire has reduced fighting but left core disputes unresolved: Hamas’s disarmament, Israel’s withdrawal and who will govern Gaza. Israel-UK Tensions: Israel ordered the British consulate in East Jerusalem closed in retaliation for UK sanctions; Britain says its Jerusalem mission will remain open.

Saudi-Yemen Escalation: Explosions were heard in Riyadh after Houthi-claimed attacks on Saudi airports. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted three missiles; diplomats sheltered in place and schools took precautions. Iran War Risk: Washington is weighing possible renewed strikes on Iran, with no decision announced, as Tehran considers a US peace offer. Threats to shipping and Gulf energy routes helped push oil near $105 a barrel. Israel-UK Rift: Israel has ordered Britain’s consulate in East Jerusalem closed. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar accused London of freezing military dialogue, a claim the UK has not publicly confirmed. Rights Crackdown: A Saudi court sentenced a man to death over a Facebook comment criticizing government and religious authorities, drawing condemnation from rights groups. Separately, reporting says Iran’s security services are pursuing dissidents abroad and pressuring relatives at home.

Iran Standoff: President Donald Trump said he was no longer keen on a deal with Tehran as the Pentagon prepares options for possible renewed strikes. No decision has been made. Tanker attacks have sharply reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic, with just seven commodity vessels crossing on Tuesday, the lowest count in more than two months. Yemen Escalation: Houthi attacks on Saudi airports killed three people and wounded 36, while fighting widened across Yemen. Houthi advances around Taiz have put government-aligned forces under pressure despite a recent counteroffensive. Israel and Gaza: Israelis marked three years since the October 7 Hamas-led attacks as Gaza remains devastated by war. Israel’s October 27 election is approaching, with Netanyahu’s handling of the attack and the war central to questions about his political future. Pakistan’s IMF Deal: Pakistan reached a staff-level agreement for about $1.2 billion in funding, pending board approval, after pledging to phase out fuel subsidies and improve state-owned company governance and social spending.

Israel’s Election Test: Three years after the October 7 attack, Israel is preparing for its first election since then, set for October 27. Benjamin Netanyahu faces renewed demands to accept political responsibility, while protesters are calling for an independent inquiry. Palestinians in Gaza are marking the anniversary amid widespread destruction and continuing deaths. Yemen’s Escalation: Fighting between the Houthis and Yemen’s internationally recognized government has intensified, with Saudi-backed forces launching operations and attacks threatening to widen the conflict across the region. Pressure on Iran: Ten countries condemned what they described as Iranian-backed activity in the Americas, while 56 nations reaffirmed efforts to enforce UN restrictions on Iran’s nuclear and weapons programs. Tensions over Tehran and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continue to add to regional uncertainty.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Oil prices bounced as Iran-linked attacks on tankers and fresh Houthi claims around Saudi Arabia kept supply fears alive, even as Middle East exports were reported nearing pre-war levels. Yemen Flashpoints: The Houthis claimed an attack on Riyadh’s main airport while Yemen’s forces pressed operations near Bab el-Mandeb, raising the stakes for Red Sea and Hormuz shipping. Israel-Hamas Anniversary: Israelis marked the third anniversary of Oct. 7 with memorials and heightened security, while Palestinians continued to face near-daily strikes and the long aftermath of the Gaza war. Regional Economy Hit: The World Bank warned the Middle East conflict could shrink regional output by 2.1% in 2026, with GCC economies hit hardest and logistics, tourism and aviation taking a direct hit. Energy Politics in Europe: Greece announced another €95m energy relief package for energy-intensive manufacturers, underscoring how electricity costs remain a competitiveness drag. Cross-Border Finance: Uganda’s CMA approved restricted cross-border participation for Dangote’s IPO, opening a narrow institutional/high-net-worth route for investors. Maritime Incident: Oman evacuated injured crew from an attacked oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while India urged an immediate halt to shipping attacks.

Israel-Hamas Election Security: Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Hamas against trying to influence Israel’s Oct. 27 Knesset vote, citing risks of attacks and even kidnappings around the election and Oct. 7 anniversary, as security officials briefed ministers on the “sensitive period.” Israel-Palestinian Commemoration & Media Framing: Multiple reports marked the third anniversary of Oct. 7, while critics say some Arab media coverage spotlights Gaza devastation without acknowledging Israeli victims, and Hamas continues to dispute allegations about civilian targeting and hostage abuse. Yemen Escalation & Maritime Pressure: Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s internationally recognized government launched a campaign to push Iran-backed Houthis away from Bab el-Mandeb, as Houthi strikes on Saudi targets—including claims around Riyadh—raise the stakes for Red Sea and Hormuz-linked energy routes. Regional Defense Pacts: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed to activate collective defense commitments under the Mecca pact, a move Ankara’s opposition warns could drag Turkey deeper into Yemen. US-Iran Tensions in US Politics: The White House pushed back on claims Trump suggested Iran could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego, while US lawmakers like Sen. Chris Murphy say Pentagon access limits are meant to hide the war’s costs. Diplomacy & Mediation: UN chief Guterres praised Pakistan’s role in US-Iran mediation during an Islamabad visit, urging a return to diplomacy and restoration of navigational rights. Domestic Rights Crackdown (Egypt): Civil society condemned Egypt’s Matsadaash crackdown, saying all newsroom journalists were arrested after raids and confiscations. Energy & Markets Backdrop: Oil eased on signs of recovering Gulf exports and stockpile releases, but Middle East risk still feeds inflation and bond-market jitters across Europe and beyond.

US-Iran Escalation: Trump warned Iran would “suffer greatly” after threats tied to the redeployment of US bombers from RAF Fairford, while also saying he’s open to direct talks—keeping military options alive ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. Regional Security & Yemen: Saudi-backed Yemeni forces launched a push to seize Mokha and secure the Bab al-Mandeb coastline; analysts expect a short-term gain but a pause to consolidate and defend against Houthi counterattacks. Gaza Politics: Israeli politician Moshe Feiglin said Gaza’s entire population, including babies, is the “enemy,” renewing international alarm over dehumanizing rhetoric and plans for forced displacement. Energy & Prices: Oil prices edged up as Hormuz shipping risks persisted, even as exports recovered; in the US, Trump blamed gasoline spikes on Ukraine-linked refinery damage and Democratic-state refinery closures, while signing an order expanding tax-free red-dyed diesel use. Human Rights & Services: Human Rights Watch said Tunisia’s power and water failures during extreme heat endangered health, with rotating outages hitting hospitals and water pumping. Diplomacy: India’s Modi met Switzerland’s president and pledged cooperation on peace and stability amid the US-Iran and Ukraine wars. Markets & Politics: Consumer confidence in Australia plunged to the worst since the early 1990s as Middle East-driven fuel costs and higher rates bite.

US-Iran Tensions & Military Posture: The U.S. has withdrawn all B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford in the UK after a suspected terror plot investigation, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying there’s no direct link to the alleged Iranian role. Yemen & Red Sea Security: Rubio also reaffirmed Washington’s intent to “live by” its security commitments with Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks continue, while Yemen’s internationally recognized government pushes operations to retake territory including Sanaa. Energy & Hormuz Pressure: Iraq is seeking more tankers to better control oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz as the war makes shipping riskier, while Saudi Aramco warns global oil stockpiles are “scarily thin” and could take years to rebuild. Diplomacy & Regional Politics: Iran’s chief of staff warns any new war could spread to countries hosting U.S. forces, as Cyprus’ president and foreign minister trade barbs with Turkey over the Cyprus problem and regional approach. Business, Tech & Governance: Qatar highlights rising AI skills and infrastructure investment, while the UAE expands cyber resilience partnerships and Es’hailSat showcases sovereign satellite capabilities at CABSAT in Dubai. Domestic/Regional Governance: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz presses for deeper economic ties with Poland, and Serbia’s diaspora vote access in the UAE is set to be blocked for the first time since 2013.

Iran-US Diplomacy: Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is serious about diplomacy but insists there is “no military solution” and no solution via new sanctions, while also warning any renewed US military confrontation would bring a stronger response. Yemen Frontline Escalation: Yemen’s Saudi-backed government announced a major campaign to retake territory held by Iran-backed Houthis, as Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco sites, raising fresh fears for Gulf energy security and shipping near Bab el-Mandeb. US-UK Military Posture: The US recalled all B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford in western England after a security incident, underscoring how the Iran war risk is reshaping Western basing decisions. Energy Markets & Policy: Oil prices rose on Houthi strike reports, while G7 moves to release emergency diesel and crude reserves helped ease supply anxiety; the wider conflict continues to feed inflation pressure. Regional Security Cooperation: Saudi, Türkiye and Pakistan’s Makkah Defence Pact committee is set to meet in Riyadh to discuss institutionalizing the alliance and addressing Houthi-linked threats. IMF Watch (Sri Lanka): The IMF reached a staff-level deal with Sri Lanka for about $345m, tied to budget and debt-restructuring conditions—an example of how global shocks still drive policy leverage.