Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran has begun six days of state funeral ceremonies for assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, with authorities expecting 15–20 million mourners and intense scrutiny over whether his son and successor Mojtaba appears publicly; chants of “death to America” and “revenge” underline Tehran’s defiant posture amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Lebanon Ceasefire Politics: Negotiations on southern Lebanon’s ceasefire and post-war arrangements are reviving the question of whether Lebanon is heading back to the 2006-style model or a new phase, with focus on Israeli withdrawal, reconstruction, and safe returns for displaced people. NATO Ankara Summit: NATO leaders are set to meet in Ankara on July 7–8, with Türkiye positioned as a key regional anchor as the alliance prioritizes sustained Ukraine support, defense spending, and force adjustments. Energy & Shipping Pressure: Iran has issued fresh directives to oil tankers and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, warning that deviations from Tehran-approved routes could trigger “immediate and forceful response,” raising new energy-security concerns. Middle East Shock on Markets: The Middle East conflict continues to ripple into inflation and growth signals, including reports of fuel-price volatility and pressure on services-sector momentum in Europe. Regional Economic Resilience: Togo’s leadership urged African states to strengthen resilience and coordination against spillovers from the Middle East crisis, citing energy prices, supply-chain disruption, and security risks.